This presentation is based on the preprint IEEE-CDC2002 paper : Blom, H.A.P. and G.J. Bakker, "Conflict Probability and Incrossing Probability in Air Traffic Management".
It considers performance metrics that are of use in the evaluation of conflict detection and resolution in air traffic management. The metrics studied are 1.conflict probability, 2.incrossing probability and 3.overlap probability all of which are closely related to the safety criteria used by the civil aviation community.
Ad. 1) Conflict probability is the probability that the distance between a pair of aircraft becomes smaller than some specified minimum separation value.
Ad 2) The overlap probability is the probability that the predicted aircraft physical volumes overlap. Thus, if we would reduce the minimum distance value in conflict probability to about the size of an aircraft, then we arrive approximately at overlap probability.
Ad 3) Incrossing probability is the probability of an incrossing between the air craft physical volumes. It is a generalization of the well known Reich incrossing model in air traffic management and it is used to predict the risk of a collision.
The main topic of the presentation is to look at the mathematical characterisations of these 3 metrics, and to show typical differences in their behaviour through numerical evaluations for some simple examples.
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