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A probabilistic approach to aircraft conflict detection

Prandini M., Hu J., Lygeros J., and Sastry S.,

IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Volume 1, Pages 199-220, December 2000

Abstract

Conflict detection and resolution schemes operating at the mid-range and short range level of the air traffic management process are discussed. Probabilistic models for predicting the aircraft position in the near term and mid-term future are developed. Based on the mid-term prediction model, the maximum instantaneous probability of conflict is proposed as criticality measure for two aircraft encounters. Randomized algorithms are introduced to efficiently estimate this measure of criticality and provide quantitative bounds on the level of approximation introduced. For short-term detection, approximate closed-form analytical expressions for the probability of conflict are obtained, using the short term prediction model. Based on these expressions, an algorithm for decentralized conflict detection and resolution that generalizes potential fields methods for path planning to a probabilistic dynamic environment is proposed. The algorithms are validated using Monte Carlo simulations.

BibTex Entry

@Article{,: author = {Prandini M., Hu J., Lygeros J., and Sastry S.,},; journal = {IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems},; title = {A probabilistic approach to aircraft conflict detection },; year = {2000},; month = {December},; pages = {199-220},; volume = {1}
}



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